China’s Unravelling Creates a $300 Billion Opportunity for India
As China’s economy is pulverized due to its never-ending Covid lockdowns, its beleaguered banking system, and the country’s face-off with Europe and America, India is well positioned to gain share in the global market for knowledge intensive manufactured products such as smartphones, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and medical devices. Cumulatively, these sectors can create an […]
Educated, Employed, and Empowered: The Rise of Indian Women
As India reaps the benefits of a decade long infra build and economic reform journey, Indian women – more than Indian men – are emerging as gamechangers. The rapid growth of a Service-oriented economy, the spread of affordable education, and the mushrooming of smartphones and social media have helped Indian women rise more rapidly over […]
India’s US$ 100 billion energy windfall
Whilst India remains the most energy intensive of the world’s four largest economies (i.e., we use more power per $1 of GDP than USA, China, and Japan), India today is far more efficient in the use of oil & coal than it was a decade ago. This improved efficiency in the use of energy has […]
From Aadhaar to ONDC: India’s Methodical Build of Digital Assets Creates Competitive Advantages
Over the past decade the Indian economy – fragmented into several regional economies a decade ago – has gradually been integrated by the doubling of highway networks, tripling of local airline traffic, the introduction of GST and – most importantly – rapid digitization of the economy. From Aadhaar (in 2010) to UPI (in 2016) and […]
The Illusion of Progress
In investing, as in many other aspects of life, we at times tend to mistake inputs with outcomes, efforts with progress. Working hard is important, but efforts, if misdirected are a waste of time. This paradox is even more extreme in the field of investment where what is commonly regarded as the main activity of […]
Sporting Success Captures India’s Rise Better Than GDP Growth
Whilst investors tend to focus on economic metrics such as GDP growth to measure a country’s progress, an equally effective way to assess the rise of a nation is its success in sports – not just highly commercialized sports like cricket but also more physically strenous disciplines like athletics, wrestling, weightlifting, etc. which require intense […]
Three Simple (But Not Easy) Ways to Make Money in India
Marcellus was incorporated exactly four years ago, and the firm opened for business on 1st December 2018. That day Saurabh Mukherjea became Marcellus’ first client. This week, Saurabh’s monthly statement showed that Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – consisting primarily of large cap stocks – has doubled his corpus in 3 years and 8 months thanks […]
India’s Moment After a Decade of Structural Reforms
Between 1870 to 1940, America became the world’s most industrialised economy. During this period, with the emergence of railroads, the telegraph, cars and roads, the American economy was ‘networked’. This joining up of America helped efficient, well capitalised companies with competitive advantages to consolidate entire industries. After a decade of pathbreaking structural reforms, India is […]
A Framework for Assessing Competitive Advantages in the Digital Era
Given the vibrancy of India’s startup ecosystem, it is interesting to see what sort of competitive advantages businesses of this sort can build. We use five parameters – (1) Barriers to Entry, (2) Product Complexity, (3) Customer Stickiness, (4) Bargaining Power & (5) Network Effects – to assess the strength of online businesses & apply […]
Japan 1970s, not USA 1970s, is the better guide to what lies ahead for India
Contrary to the fashionable view that the Indian stock market will crater alongside the American stock market (as the Federal Reserve pursues aggressive rate tightening), we believe that India is more likely to follow the trajectory of Japan in the 1970s. As oil prices rose 10x through the 1970s, the US stock market went nowhere […]
India’s Capex Moves From Stability to Growth
India’s capex has been stable at around 30-35% of GDP for much of the past decade. Tech investments are an increasingly large portion of India’s capex but are not being picked-up by the official data. Whilst Government data suggests that India’s capex stands at 30% of GDP, if we adjust for technology investments in the […]
How Cold War II Will Impact Your Wealth
Given the likelihood of elevated inflation as Cold War II commences, the worst possible thing that investors can do is seek the safety of fixed deposits, Government bonds, corporate bonds and other fixed income investments – inflation will radically erode the real value of such investments. The most sensible method to deal with a scenario […]
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