Marcellus Insights

Consistent Compounders

What Goes into the Making of a Data Center?

An AI datacentre has 6 components: compute (the GPUs that do the thinking), power infrastructure (transformers, substations, backup generators), cooling systems (liquid cooling is now mandatory), networking (the high-speed pipes connecting thousands of chips), storage (where data and models live), and the physical building itself. Every single one of these categories is simultaneously in short […]

Consistent Compounders

GIFT City $ PMS in Global Stocks is the Amitabh Bachchan of NRI Investing

Summary: More than investments in Indian stocks, it is $ investment in the world’s best companies through GIFT City is emerging as an option for NRIs. A GIFT City PMS in global stocks may help in addressing FOUR big challenges for NRIs because: a) it does NOT create PFIC issues; b) it does NOT expose the NRI to INR depreciation; c) it […]

Consistent Compounders

The Resilient US Economy Has Major Implications for Indians

Over the past 35 years, the United States has combined the second-lowest GDP growth volatility among large, advanced economies with the second-highest mean growth rate. The combination is unusual. Most economies trade growth for stability or stability for growth. The United States trades neither away. This has profound implications for Indian investors. A moderate allocation […]

Consistent Compounders

What Does the Singularity Imply for Your Portfolio

Summary: Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity forecast in 2005 — that machine intelligence will so dramatically exceed all human intelligence by 2045 that human life will be irreversibly transformed — was initially dismissed as the speculative musings of an eccentric scientist. However, now that his intermediate forecast for 2029 – that AI will pass the Turing test (i.e., […]

Consistent Compounders

Your 50s are By Far the Most Important Decade for Your Compounding

5 sets of factors make sensible saving & investing in your 50s even more important for Indians than for people in the developed world: 1) rapidly rising life expectancy, 2) surging healthcare & hospitalisation costs, 3) steadily rising cost of paying for children’s overseas education, 4) clear signs that AI will lead to job cuts for mid-senior level employees, and 5) most Indians have most […]

Consistent Compounders

Hyperscalers’ Exponential Revenue Growth Signals Trouble for Jobs

So far AI has for the most part augmented the efforts of human workers rather than replacing them outright. Agentic AI is different – it promises to replace human workers entirely and perform roles independently. Actual use of Agentic AI has so far been limited by its unreliability and by the high cost of compute. […]

Consistent Compounders

The Recent Birth and Ongoing Decline of ‘The Office’

Across the world, technology is steadily reducing the relevance of ‘The Office’ for white collar workers. As demand for office space in big cities reduces and as work shifts in two directions: a) to ‘Work From Home’; and b) to white collar gig work, demand for residential and commercial space in Tier 2 cities will […]

Consistent Compounders

Foreign ESOPs: Valuable, Illiquid, Tax-Inefficient & Tricky

Summary: The quantum of ESOPs held by Indians in foreign companies is orders of magnitude larger than ESOPs held in desi companies. And yet, this is a mixed blessing because foreign ESOPs are illiquid, tax-inefficient and tricky to manage. Marcellus recommends 3 simple steps which can help Indians make the most of these stock options: (1) Move portfolio […]

Consistent Compounders

Parents Are Dipping Deep into Their Retirement Savings to Pay for their Kids’ Education

Summary: With 1.3 million Indians studying at Western universities, India leads the world in sending its kids to study abroad . While you would expect that of the world’s most populous nation, what is unexpected is the level of financial stress that Indian parents are bearing to finance their children’s dreams of a better life. Most Indian parents […]

Consistent Compounders

A Quadruple Shock to the Cost of Living

While the rising price of Brent crude features prominently in media reports, there are 3 other less reported inflationary shocks moving towards the Indian economy – the rising cost of imports, the soaring cost of edible oils and the likelihood of a poor monsoon – which are capable of delivering a punch as powerful as […]

Consistent Compounders

Retirement Planning: Tackling the Hardest Problem in Finance

Summary: Across the world, retirement planning is viewed as one of the most complex problems in Finance due to the multitude of unpredictable variables at play. In India, this problem is made more complex by the high and variable inflation in the cost of living. The problem is made even more challenging for the Indian middle […]

Consistent Compounders

AI is Birthing a New Middle-Class Elite: Evidence from the West

Nearly four years since the launch of ChatGPT, what has AI done to middle class jobs and incomes in the West? Our literature survey (using AI) suggests: 1) Middle class white collar jobs – especially entry level jobs – have collapsed in the West; 2) Most middle class white collar jobs in the West are […]

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