Investors consistently earn less than the funds they invest in — NOT because fund managers underperform, but because investors put more money in after strong runs and pull back after weak ones, a behaviour directly visible in the data across most equity categories. This “timing penalty”, which our analysis suggests would be approximately 1% point per […]
The 150-year-old concept of the nation state is steadily being altered by: a) the growing complexity for such states to tax economic activity; b) the fact that barring USA & China, every state has reduced control of the critical technologies which underpin modern economies; and c) the migration of gainful employment away from salaried jobs (which are easy to tax) and […]
Quality investing lagged for five consecutive years (2021-25) as the twin post-Covid booms – Consumption and Govt capex – lifted all boats and investors moved away from expensive Quality names (trading at 50x earnings) to less expensive Value names (trading at 20x). FY26 was the high-water mark of that distortion: the Value factor returned 14% […]
Summary: Our meetings with a dozen large FIIs in North America and UK over the past few weeks suggest that scrapping equity Capital Gains Tax (CGT) for FIIs will trigger 3 different types of benefits for the Indian economy: a) lower borrowing costs for the sovereign and hence for corporates; b) a stronger INR and […]
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) strategically invests in ~40 deeply moated global companies aligned with megatrends, with an aim to provide steady earnings and shareholder wealth compounding. Over the last few years, we’ve seen the world get increasingly intoxicated with the AI narrative. While we certainly see long-term merit in this technology and what it […]
Two in-depth, independently researched publications – our bestselling book “Breakpoint” and Azim Premji University’s “State of Working India 2026” – make three points which have significant implications for everyone reading this note: a) Jobs for graduates have dried up in India; b) Salaries for graduates have been FALLING for the best part of the past decade in real terms; […]
Accustomed to seeing current account deficits, India will now have to get used to capital account deficits as well, as Indian promoters rush to invest abroad. This unique twin deficit problem will not only create sustained pressure on the INR, but it will also expose Indian retail investors, who ploughed over $100bn in the post-Covid […]
A simple equal weighted portfolio of 5 widely available assets (rebalanced annually) gives you returns similar to Indian equities with risk which is nearly 1/4th that of the Nifty50. This allows you to compound your wealth at a healthy rate while allowing you to sleep peacefully at night, both, during heart stopping years like 2008 (when the […]
An AI datacentre has 6 components: compute (the GPUs that do the thinking), power infrastructure (transformers, substations, backup generators), cooling systems (liquid cooling is now mandatory), networking (the high-speed pipes connecting thousands of chips), storage (where data and models live), and the physical building itself. Every single one of these categories is simultaneously in short […]
Summary: More than investments in Indian stocks, it is $ investment in the world’s best companies through GIFT City is emerging as an option for NRIs. A GIFT City PMS in global stocks may help in addressing FOUR big challenges for NRIs because: a) it does NOT create PFIC issues; b) it does NOT expose the NRI to INR depreciation; c) it […]
Over the past 35 years, the United States has combined the second-lowest GDP growth volatility among large, advanced economies with the second-highest mean growth rate. The combination is unusual. Most economies trade growth for stability or stability for growth. The United States trades neither away. This has profound implications for Indian investors. A moderate allocation […]
Summary: Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity forecast in 2005 — that machine intelligence will so dramatically exceed all human intelligence by 2045 that human life will be irreversibly transformed — was initially dismissed as the speculative musings of an eccentric scientist. However, now that his intermediate forecast for 2029 – that AI will pass the Turing test (i.e., […]
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