Disrupt, Dominate, Deliver Strong Free Cash Flows and Repeat!
Whilst there are various investment philosophies aimed at swapping disrupted incumbents with new disruptors, such investments entail taking speculative risks around the future dominance of the new disruptor. At Marcellus, we believe that dominance cannot be sustained without disruption, and disruption is not worth investing into if it doesn’t generate substantial free cash flows for […]
The Difference Between Investing and Gambling
Many investors erroneously believe that because the markets have run up in the past few months, the probability of the markets delivering negative returns in the future is now higher. The past twenty-one years (2000-2020) of data suggests that there is no significant correlation between returns delivered in the previous six months and the next […]
Winter Sunrise For Low Quality Small Caps
After witnessing steep declines over CY18 and CY19 and continued woes in 1QCY20 with the onset of the pandemic, small caps had their proverbial ‘rising from the ashes’ moment with the BSE Smallcap index returning 114% from its March 2020 low. However, a downside of this has been unwarranted exuberance in low quality small caps. […]
SIP vs Market Timers – Who Wins the Consistent Compounding Race?
Over the past 25 months, investors who waited for a market correction before deploying top-ups from their recurring income into Marcellus’ CCP PMS would have experienced a significant drag (of at least 3-5% on annualized returns, if not more) vs SIP based investments. This is due to a combination of three factors: a) low correlation […]
Covid-19 and market share gains for the Kings of Capital
Ahead of the Covid-19 related NPAs being made public in the next few months, we first try and simplify the complexity created by the moratorium offered to borrowers, standstill asset classification for lenders and the Supreme Court order on not recognizing NPAs. We further illustrate how the lenders in the Kings of Capital portfolio are […]
Spotlighting Suprajit Engineering
Unlike their peers, Little Champs portfolio witnessed a healthy recovery in earnings (EBITDA up 14% YoY) in 2QFY21. More importantly, Little Champs’ net cash position has remained intact through 1HFY21 giving them the firepower to gain market shares from their weaker peers. This month we place the spotlight on Suprajit Engineering which has consistently outpaced […]
The Maths, Science and Art of Investing in Equities
Equity investing can be a complex business. The variables at play are numerous – not just the macro and micro variables relevant to a stock, but also the psychological factors facing an investor. Maths, Science and Art are subjects that have improved our ability to understand the complexities of the world around us. Whilst decisions […]
Indian Financials: A compounding miracle hiding in plain sight
In this newsletter we illustrate why investing in Indian Financial Services stocks is highly rewarding for long term investors not only in terms of absolute returns but also in terms of risk adjusted returns. The data over the past two decades suggests that: (i) the Bank Nifty has delivered far higher absolute returns than the […]
Spotlighting Alkyl Amines
This month we place the spotlight on Alkyl Amines, a leading manufacturer of aliphatic amines – a key ingredient in the pharma and chemical industries. Over the last ten years (FY10-20), Alkyl has delivered earnings CAGR of 34% with an average pre-tax RoCE of 23% (these numbers look even better for the last 3 and […]
Rewards of waiting for a ‘lower purchase price’ in CCP vs others
Share price performance of the Nifty50 and Marcellus’ CCP portfolio constituents over the past two decades shows that the benefits of waiting for lower purchase prices fade away meaningfully as the quality of the portfolio’s fundamentals improves. Investors who make periodic investments in companies with weak fundamentals benefit substantially from timing the purchase prices – […]
India’s Kings of Capital – Part III: Aditya Puri
While we focused on the capital allocation skills of Uday Kotak (click here to read) and Deepak Parekh (click here to read) in our preceding pieces in this series, the genius of Aditya Puri lies in the fact that there have been no miraculous moments, no solitary lucky break or grand transition programs which have led to […]
Spotlighting V-Mart Retail
This month we place the spotlight on another portfolio company, V-Mart Retail, the largest affordable fashion apparel retailer in tier 2, 3 and tier 4 cities of the north-eastern Hindi heartland. V-Mart commands one of the best RoCEs in Indian retail (pre-tax average RoCE of 28% over FY17-20) and has delivered net earnings CAGR of […]
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