Right Now, But Wrong Later
It is that time of the market cycle again when market participants contemplate getting out and coming back in when the dust settles, wishfully at lower levels. Whilst it is no doubt a tempting prospect, we are not sure if we’ll be able to call the bottom in real time (not hindsight) nor if lower […]
The invincible business of counterfeit goods
This long read from The Guardian is an excerpt from a new book Authenticity: Reclaiming Reality in a Counterfeit Culture by Alice Sherwood about the business of counterfeit goods. Sherwood begins by showing just how big the fake goods market is: “According to some estimates, the trade in fake products is worth $600bn per year. As many as […]
MITMCo 15 Year Alumni Letter
In the midst of the current doom & gloom regarding equity markets, it is important to maintain a sense of perspective. The MIT Investment Management Company (MITMCo) manages MIT’s endowment and they celebrated their 15th anniversary last month. Their 15th anniversary letter is worth reading in the current circumstances to maintain a sense of balance and poise. […]
Simon Schama: when history is weaponised for war
For several decades now, Simon Schama has been an historian capable of reframing the past in unique ways using frameworks that other commentators seldom use. In this piece for the FT he explains why ‘militant nostalgia’ (i.e. a yearning for a past in which my country ruled the world) is on the rise globally. Using […]
The Wild Improbability of This Moment
We’ll conclude this week’s edition with this reality check of a piece for all of us who feel good about betting on knowing the future. The piece is by Dan Gardner, the co-author of the superb book ‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ along with the legendary Phil Tetlock. Tetlock and Gardner drew upon […]
The Real Enemy
Often investment decisions are made purely on the basis of returns ignoring two other equally if not more important aspects – risk and time horizon. Risk, unfortunately is not easy to understand. Our industry including us have misrepresented risk by equating with volatility which as Christine Benz articulates in this Morning Star article, is a […]
The flawed math behind Elon Musk’s Twitter deal
There has been a lot of hue and cry about the prospects of the wealthiest person in the world owning the world’s ‘digital townsquare’ and thereby wielding significant power through influence of public opinion. Whilst the real power of Twitter as a platform of influence is debatable given the relatively small user base (compared to […]
Hong Kong, my vanishing city
Several of us in Marcellus were stockbrokers before we could afford to become investors. As stockbrokers, Hong Kong was one of our favourite cities to visit, ranking alongside vibrant financial centres as New York and London and offering people like us not just the chance to make money but also to enjoy delicious Chinese food, […]
Why the past 10 years of American life have been uniquely stupid
Jonathan Haidt is the Professor of Ethical Leadership at New York University Stern School of Business. “His main areas of study are the psychology of morality and moral emotions. Haidt’s main scientific contributions come from the psychological field of moral foundations theory, which attempts to explain the evolutionary origins of human moral reasoning on the basis […]
Studying the ‘Holiday Schedule’ of Consistent Compounders
Share prices of CCPs often go on a ‘holiday’ for 12-24 months, delivering weak or no returns. These ‘holiday’ periods of share price are typically uncorrelated with fundamentals because during such periods these companies continue implementing initiatives to enhance the sustainability of their competitive advantages. Once the ‘holiday’ period ends, share prices of CCPs deliver […]
We call it anda bhurji’: How the Indian subcontinent discovered Persian khagina and made it its own
Whilst the team at Marcellus hails from various parts of India and obviously has representatives from all of India’s great religious faiths, we are united by our love for good food & drink. Analysis of food in Marcellus comes second only to analysis of stocks. Preparations for any celebration are preceded by elaborate discussions on […]
Dhoni’s last-ball four, Miandad’s six and the stillness of their minds
Those of us who grew up in the 1980s hated Javed Miandad for traumatising us with insanely well calculated knocks in critical encounters with India. At the same time, even as schoolkids we could see why we needed to grow up to be like him – calm under pressure, calculating the odds all the time, […]
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