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The year 2022 was full of drama akin to a 90s Hindi feature film. Just as the world was finding its feet post the devastating blow from Covid-19 over 2020-21, we heard the news of Russia – Ukraine war that sent the energy and food prices through the roof. At the same time, we saw central banks move in tandem globally to reverse the years long era of extremely low interest rates- all the while as China kept struggling with supply chain and Covid issues. While grappling with implications of these upheavals, writing was one routine we’ve continued to steadfastly maintain. To mark the end of the year, we have compiled the ‘Best Blogs of 2022’ from Marcellus. These are the blogs where you, the readers, have engaged with us the most, either via e-mail replies or through social media interactions. If you liked any of our blogs other than the three compiled here, please let us know – we would love to hear from you.
As the year comes to an end and we pause and reflect on the months gone by, we are thankful for every small blessing bestowed on us. Here’s wishing each and everyone of you and your families a very Happy New Year!
1.India’s Moment After a Decade of Structural Reforms
Between 1870 to 1940, America became the world’s most industrialised economy. During this period, with the emergence of railroads, the telegraph, cars and roads, the American economy was ‘networked’. This joining up of America helped efficient, well capitalised companies with competitive advantages to consolidate entire industries. After a decade of pathbreaking structural reforms, India is going through a similar phase. Massive improvements in transport & communication networks, in the banking system, in the tax regime and in the way social security benefits are dispensed have allowed enterprising companies to capitalise on these changes and create mouth-wateringly valuable franchises.
2.China’s Unravelling Creates a $300 Billion Opportunity for India
As China’s economy is pulverized due to its never-ending Covid lockdowns, its beleaguered banking system, and the country’s face-off with Europe and America, India is well positioned to gain share in the global market for knowledge intensive manufactured products such as smartphones, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and medical devices. Cumulatively, these sectors can create an opportunity of close to $300 bn for India i.e., enough to juice up India’s GDP growth for the next decade by a whole percentage point.
In investing, as in many other aspects of life, we at times tend to mistake inputs with outcomes, efforts with progress. Working hard is important, but efforts, if misdirected are a waste of time. This paradox is even more extreme in the field of investment where what is commonly regarded as the main activity of investors (i.e. trading) is actually an almost total waste of time. On the other hand, what most people would regard as a poor use of time (i.e. sitting and reading for hours at a time) is the most important thing an investor can do to be useful to his clients.
Happy reading and a very happy new year!
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