Rich rewards from Investing in Quality during the Toughest Phase
Long periods of outperformance by quality firms are often characterized by intermittent periods of severe underperformance – something that has been unavoidable by even the likes of Warren Buffet. Such underperformance was especially prominent during three instances (first half of 1970s, Mar’99-Aug’00 & Nov’04-Apr’06) wherein Berkshire Hathaway’s underperformance was in high double digits even as […]
A Retailer’s Path to Consistent Compounding
Over an extended period of time, it is hard to make money in Retailing. In this newsletter, we discuss a subset of retailing – apparel retailing – and how the principles that underpin the business models of consistent compounders in general are of relevance for success in apparel retailing as well. Two key variables – […]
High ROCE of CCP companies attracts new competitors regularly
In any vibrant, free market economy, firms that enjoy high RoCE will attract continuous waves of competition. Amidst high competitive intensity, while most firms will fall by the wayside, the Consistent Compounders are able to maintain their dominance due to their strong moats – built through prudent capital allocation and strategic decision making. Marcellus’ research […]
Succession Planning is Critical for Disruptive Capital Allocation
Large businesses often face the risk of stagnating growth due to saturation of their core market or disruption from new innovators. One way to mitigate this risk is to invest in disruption, innovation & expansion of the business into adjacencies. However, successful execution of such capital allocation decisions is not dependent only on strategic decision-making […]
Wealth Compounding = High ROCEs + Reinvestment of Profits
Starting this month, we are rolling out a joint newsletter across our four domestic PMS Products. In this edition, we revisit the basic principles underlying Marcellus’ investment philosophy i.e. a firm’s ability to generate Free Cashflows (FCF) and grow them at a healthy rate sustainably over the long term. We take a look at: a) […]
Optical Illusions in Equity Investing
Psychological biases tend to affect an investor’s decision making in subtle ways which are usually detrimental to long term investment returns. Several of these biases are better described as optical Illusions. Using the construct of the human brain as described by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman in his book ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, we highlight a […]
CCP valuation multiples correct 30% whilst fundamentals continue to compound at over 20% per annum
CCP portfolio companies’ valuations have become 30-35% cheaper over the last 12 months. Given that Free Cashflows of these companies have compounded at 5-7% higher run-rate compared to their earnings consistently over the last 5-10 years, their current valuations (on a Price to Free Cashflow basis) are significantly cheaper than where they were 3 or […]
When ‘Loss Aversion’ Meets ‘Time Horizons’ in Equity Investing
Investors’ decision making is often underpinned by a key psychological trait – loss aversion. As explained by Noble laureate Daniel Kahneman, the result of ‘loss aversion’ is that our pain from losses is more than twice the joy from equal amounts of gain. Juxtaposing this idea to the CCP investing approach discussed in our book […]
Divis: Greatness in Indian Pharma
It is rare to find an Indian pharma company which makes systematic investments towards building the customer’s trust, improving compliance and ramping up manufacturing efficiency. Divis Labs is one such company that has delivered on these fronts for almost three decades. It has been the preferred manufacturing partner for major Western pharma companies on the […]
Four years of CCP: 98.2% total returns, 18.6% CAGR
A review of the last four years of CCP returns highlights the consistency of performance across investee companies – almost all constituent stocks have compounded their share prices at 15-30% annually demonstrating that stock selection contributed significantly to portfolio returns. Additionally, portfolio management tools such as the Longevity Framework and Margin of Safety & Sustainability […]
Think First Principles, then Disrupt & Dominate
Several CCP Portfolio companies have announced business initiatives which seek to change the paradigm of certain industries – such as Titan (Caratlane), Asian Paints (Home Décor and backward integration) and Bajaj Finance (Fintech related initiatives). All of these initiatives are already profitable with a potential to leverage the existing core strengths of these companies to […]
P/E Multiples are Deceptively Dangerous
A stock trading at a P/E multiple of 50x could be cheaper than one trading at 15x P/E multiple, even if both stocks deliver the same profit growth. This is possible due to factors such as superior capital efficiency (measured by Return on Capital Employed) and greater longevity of free cashflow compounding. Moreover, a focus […]
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