George Soros on Russia, China and The Fight of Our Lives
Rising interest rates aren’t the only nor the key fundamental issue that the world markets, financial or otherwise, need to be worried about. Interest rate hikes are a response to rising inflation which in turn is partly explained by excessive demand caused by the massive stimulus to handle Covid related weakness but also supply issues. […]
Pimco: navigating the end of the bond bull market
From the early 1980s until earlier this year, the US ten year bond yield has steadily fallen – from 15%+ in 1980 gradually to 1% at the height of the Covid panic. This created not just a 40-year bull market in bonds, it also created a swathe of gigantic asset classes such as junk bonds, […]
The long history of fragrant food in India, from massaging hens with musk to cooking in leaves
Like most Indians, most Marcellus staff members have an obsession about eating well. However, whilst we are willing to invest significant time and money to satiate our eating obsessions, this piece from Priyadarshini Chatterjee confirms that our efforts pale in front of what our ancestors were capable of: “In any gustatory experience, aroma is as important […]
Japan 1970s, not USA 1970s, is the better guide to what lies ahead for India
Contrary to the fashionable view that the Indian stock market will crater alongside the American stock market (as the Federal Reserve pursues aggressive rate tightening), we believe that India is more likely to follow the trajectory of Japan in the 1970s. As oil prices rose 10x through the 1970s, the US stock market went nowhere […]
Well Placed in a World with Rising Rates
Even after the RBI’s 40bps repo rate hike on 4th May 2022, repo rates are still 70bps below pre-Covid levels while inflation is trending well above pre-Covid levels. Hence we expect interest rates to rise further over the next few quarters. During three of the four rising interest cycles over the past two decades, the Bank […]
How do we know which Promoter(s) to back?
Taking a call on a small cap company is, to a large extent, taking a call on the promoter(s). Besides the promoter’s track record of capital allocation and experience of dealing with crises, another important assessment of promoter quality is the extent to which she is financially & emotionally invested in single mindedly running the […]
‘This is the real World Cup…proud of team’
They are calling it the 1983 moment for Indian badminton. The reference to India’s first cricket world cup win is only apt as it drove the whole nation to get obsessed about one sport to the extent now we are consistently at the top of world cricket. With last Sunday’s Thomas Cup (a world cup […]
You Eat a Credit Card’s Worth of Plastic Every Week
Many of us have been aghast at the pictures showing the vast plastic dump somewhere in the Pacific. “…plastic is omnipresent. Plastic is cheap and easy to make and mold. We use this miracle polymer to store and transport food, make our clothes and cosmetics, cars and boats, detergents and fertilizers, transfuse our blood and […]
The Rise After the Fall
Ted Lamade writes this guest post for the Collaborative Fund about the fallout of a prolonged bull market that we saw over the last 13yrs – many of us have either forgotten or some not even learnt the ability to rise after the inevitable fall. “In the midst of one of the longest bull markets […]
What the CIA thinks: William Burns on the new world disorder
Whilst financial markets have been battered on the back of central bank action on interest rates and liquidity, far more serious developments are underway on the geo-political front. Edward Luce, the US national editor at the Financial Times, someone with a long history of covering America’s role in the world order as the Washington bureau […]
Bonuses are outdated in the age of knowledge work
Three years ago we debated for months on end before finalising the compensation philosophy which guides Marcellus’ HR team today. The central point of debate for the Marcellus leadership was bonuses – Should they be paid? If so, how much and on what basis? Given that there is very little useful research / published material […]
The Economist’s cover story – India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing big economy this year
Over the past couple of years we have written not just about the structural changes in India which are allowing high quality companies to consistently growth their cashflows (see https://marcellus.in/blogs/three-distinct-layers-of-polarization-in-the-indian-stock-market/) but also how China has repeatedly scored own goals which have hammered the ability of Chinese companies to compound their shareholders’ wealth (see https://marcellus.in/blogs/why-india-beats-china-hollow-on-consistent-compounding/). As you would […]
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