The Rise After the Fall
Ted Lamade writes this guest post for the Collaborative Fund about the fallout of a prolonged bull market that we saw over the last 13yrs – many of us have either forgotten or some not even learnt the ability to rise after the inevitable fall. “In the midst of one of the longest bull markets […]
What the CIA thinks: William Burns on the new world disorder
Whilst financial markets have been battered on the back of central bank action on interest rates and liquidity, far more serious developments are underway on the geo-political front. Edward Luce, the US national editor at the Financial Times, someone with a long history of covering America’s role in the world order as the Washington bureau […]
Bonuses are outdated in the age of knowledge work
Three years ago we debated for months on end before finalising the compensation philosophy which guides Marcellus’ HR team today. The central point of debate for the Marcellus leadership was bonuses – Should they be paid? If so, how much and on what basis? Given that there is very little useful research / published material […]
The Economist’s cover story – India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing big economy this year
Over the past couple of years we have written not just about the structural changes in India which are allowing high quality companies to consistently growth their cashflows (see https://marcellus.in/blogs/three-distinct-layers-of-polarization-in-the-indian-stock-market/) but also how China has repeatedly scored own goals which have hammered the ability of Chinese companies to compound their shareholders’ wealth (see https://marcellus.in/blogs/why-india-beats-china-hollow-on-consistent-compounding/). As you would […]
Shivkumar Sharma was a musician’s musician – he thought music
Indian classical music has contributed some great musicians to the world music scene no doubt but it wasn’t just the music that these musicians brought but also entirely new sounds thanks to some unique musical instruments. Perhaps the most unique of such musician-instrument combinations has to be Pandit Shivkumar Sharma and the santoor. Pandit Sharma […]
Artificial intelligence and what it owes a man who never sits down
The hammering tech stocks have been under this year notwithstanding, there is no denying the massive strides the tech industry has made over the past decade. Most notably in the area of artificial intelligence and its practical applications. This piece is to acknowledge the contribution to this field of Geoffrey Hinton, a cognitive psychologist and […]
Right Now, But Wrong Later
It is that time of the market cycle again when market participants contemplate getting out and coming back in when the dust settles, wishfully at lower levels. Whilst it is no doubt a tempting prospect, we are not sure if we’ll be able to call the bottom in real time (not hindsight) nor if lower […]
The invincible business of counterfeit goods
This long read from The Guardian is an excerpt from a new book Authenticity: Reclaiming Reality in a Counterfeit Culture by Alice Sherwood about the business of counterfeit goods. Sherwood begins by showing just how big the fake goods market is: “According to some estimates, the trade in fake products is worth $600bn per year. As many as […]
MITMCo 15 Year Alumni Letter
In the midst of the current doom & gloom regarding equity markets, it is important to maintain a sense of perspective. The MIT Investment Management Company (MITMCo) manages MIT’s endowment and they celebrated their 15th anniversary last month. Their 15th anniversary letter is worth reading in the current circumstances to maintain a sense of balance and poise. […]
Simon Schama: when history is weaponised for war
For several decades now, Simon Schama has been an historian capable of reframing the past in unique ways using frameworks that other commentators seldom use. In this piece for the FT he explains why ‘militant nostalgia’ (i.e. a yearning for a past in which my country ruled the world) is on the rise globally. Using […]
The Wild Improbability of This Moment
We’ll conclude this week’s edition with this reality check of a piece for all of us who feel good about betting on knowing the future. The piece is by Dan Gardner, the co-author of the superb book ‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ along with the legendary Phil Tetlock. Tetlock and Gardner drew upon […]
The Real Enemy
Often investment decisions are made purely on the basis of returns ignoring two other equally if not more important aspects – risk and time horizon. Risk, unfortunately is not easy to understand. Our industry including us have misrepresented risk by equating with volatility which as Christine Benz articulates in this Morning Star article, is a […]
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