The Hero Delusion in Sport, Business & Elsewhere
Published on: 5 Oct, 2018 Evolution has trained us to use ‘thumb rules’ to simplify complex decisions. However, when these thumb rules don’t work, we are prone to delusional thinking. Our belief in heroes is one such delusion. Evolution has taught us to take mental shortcuts In our second piece for The Ken, my friend, […]
Accounting fraud and liquidity crunches are bedfellows
Published on: 29 Sep, 2018 Major accounting frauds typically come to light when liquidity tightens. Given the over 2% point jump in money market rates in India in the last 12 months, the probability of major accounting fraud coming to light in the Indian stockmarket is growing. “In many ways, capital markets are designed to […]
Elections are irrelevant for equity investors
Published on: 20 Sep, 2018 Exhaustive research by American political scientists, Chris Achen & Larry Bartels, shows that elections neither produce responsive governments nor do voters elect leaders who can tangibly impact economic outcomes and stockmarkets. “An understanding of the importance of the desire for recognition as the motor of history allows us to reinterpret […]
Reverse Positioned Brands
Published on: 10 Sep, 2018 “The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of ‘positive deviants’ in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as everyone else but stubbornly refuse to allow themselves to be constrained by conventional wisdoms, and as a consequence are able […]
Lehman, liquidity and Indias exposed financial system
On a crisp wintry morning in January 2007 I sat down with, John Kay, the Chairman of the firm I had co-founded in London, for our monthly chat. Over the next hour or so, John’s penetrating intellect helped me understand why the over leveraged British financial system would blow up. Then, through the entirety of […]
The smartest thinkers on competitive advantage
‘Competitive advantage’ is the most commonly used concept in business. However, proper application of the concept – to figure out whether an investment is worth making – is not easy. Three smart thinkers – Joan Magretta, Yefei Lu, and Bruce Greenwald – have discovered insightful ways to apply competitive advantage in the context of investing. […]
The rise of Indian SMEs
The networking of the Indian economy (through roads, phones, internet, low cost flights) has created immense churn in the stockmarket. Small companies who were formerly regional players are raising their sights and aiming to become national players. The rewards for those who succeed is a pan-India franchise and a place in the BSE500. Investors who […]
Reversion to the mean in politics & investing
Our desire to see India change for the better results in us overestimating the pace of change in the country in the short-medium run. This creates valuation anomalies that one can profit from. Selling wholesale market funded lenders and buying IT and pharma stocks would be the obvious way to profit from disruptions in the […]
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