Reverend Thomas Bayes and a Big Buy Call on India
With most investors spending majority of their time reading and thinking about Coronavirus, it would be fair to say that their minds are now firmly “anchored” by the crisis. As Kahneman & Tversky showed 40 years ago, anchoring impacts our ability to think rationally. 300 years ago, Thomas Bayes created a pathbreaking theorem which can be […]
How Facebook and Google are helping the CDC forecast coronavirus
Contact tracing-testing-isolation has been a strategy several governments have adopted to control the Covid situation to a large extent. However, much of contact tracing techniques involve using data sources which potentially infringe on privacy laws. Whilst these can be justified in the current situation, many fear that these can be legitimised in the post Covid […]
Robots Welcome to Take Over, as Pandemic Accelerates Automation
Industries which require employees to be physically present in the premises and hence can’t implement an effective Work From Home policy may see an accelerated adoption of automation. Replacing a human being, a natural host for the virus, with a robot provides a simplistic solution to breaking the chain. Businesses might find the robot, which […]
If The Government Does Not Step In With Clear Incentives, The Industry Will Collapse
The headline of this article could well be a common cry for help from several industries but the restaurant industry is one which could use this even without the lockdown inflicted woes. In a candid interview with the Outlook Business, Riyaaz Amlani, CEO of Impressario Handmade restaurants which runs chains like Social, Smoke House Deli, […]
Hedge-Fund Geniuses Failed Again. When Will We Learn?
Brilliant piece by John Authers, the veteran markets commentator formerly with the FT. John brings back memories of LTCM, the hedge fund which went belly up in the late nineties and how nothing really has changed since then. The S&P500 lost a staggering 33% in a little over 20 trading days and then back to […]
The more you know a stock the worse your performance gets
This blog from Klement renders yeoman service for HNWs by refuting the notion that HNWs should put all their eggs in one basket and then watch that basket really closely. The blog uses a clever study conducted by an Indian academic to attack the latter part of the proposition given in the previous sentence: “Didn’t Andrew […]
Even Warren Buffett Can’t Nail the Bottom
50% of our calls with our clients during the lockdown hinges around the client probing us on whether the bottom has been reached (in terms of the Indian market bottoming out). As you would expect, our view is that neither we nor anyone else knows whether the market has bottomed or whether it will bottom […]
Strength & Resilience in Difficult Times
We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a […]
Consistent Compounders fall less and recover sooner and sharper
In FY20, Marcellus’ CCP PMS has delivered healthy absolute returns (+7.6% vs -25.0% for Nifty50 Total Return Index) alongside resilience during the recent stock market correction (since 1st Jan 2020: -12.9% for Marcellus CCP vs -29.1% for Nifty50 TRI). Beyond the period of business disruption from the ongoing lockdown, fundamentals of Marcellus’ CCP companies are […]
Knowing the Unknowable…
…or how the free market messes with our minds. As we end Marcellus’ first full financial year with healthy absolute and relative returns, we are beginning to comprehend just how profoundly market forces can wreck our clarity of thought. Whilst man’s desire to know his future is primordial, the free market taps into this desire […]
For more content on our strategy, visit the archives GO TO ARCHIVES