Another masterpiece by Morgan Housel, more so because the subject matter of the blog is the reason we produce Three longs and three shorts. Morgan brings out the need to have a perspective on a wide variety of topics so as to be in a position to connect seemingly disparate events/issues and draw a coherent meaningful insight. In this piece, Morgan talks about what he considers as the three most important issues influencing humanity today – Demographics, Inequality and Access to Information. On each of these issues, Morgan brings out a historical perspective which can help drive second level thinking and hence a very different take on what might transpire in the future than what is reflected by the current consensus. For example, he reckons that whilst demographically ageing populations might affect most countries in the developed world, America is likely to see its competitiveness rise thanks to a long history of immigration not only offsetting the falling population but also driving enterprise and nation building. On inequality, he takes on an equally sanguine stance that mean reversion historically has meant that the have-nots of today will get together and drive policy towards redistribution. On the internet and breaking down on information barriers, he is less decisive given both fascinating and terrifying things emerge alongside – removal of ideological ignorance and meritocracy as the positives on the one hand to the travesty that fake news creates on the other. A fascinating read nonetheless about how insight is the product of knowledge gained across a diverse set of topics and the ability to join the dots.
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Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Marcellus Investment Managers is also regulated in the United States as an Investment Advisor.
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