We published a note last month on the positive economic implications – from an Indian perspective – of the ongoing unravelling of the Chinese economy – see
https://marcellus.in/blogs/chinas-unravelling-creates-a-300-billion-opportunity-for-india/

However, as Pratap Bhanu Mehta explains in this edit piece, the challenge that India faces is that the more China unravels, the more India’s economy & influence grows, the greater will be the aggression that China will display on the border: “The recent clashes between India and China on the Tawang border are a reminder of the continuing strategic challenge of dealing with China. In geo-political terms this is the biggest challenge India faces, and it is now acquiring unprecedented dimensions. The risks of military confrontation have clearly escalated. Practically the entire border with China is now open to moves and counter moves from both sides. Diplomatic relations with China are at their lowest ebb. The fact that there is no strategic dialogue between India and China at the highest levels of leadership ought to be a matter of concern under any circumstances….

It is hard to imagine the Chinese regime, in its current context, comfortable with an India triumph on the global diplomatic stage in the context of G-20. Its strategy is to keep the world on edge. But finally, regime type matters. Democracies can often engage in their own imperial overreach. But it is also the case that as power gets more personalised in China, nationalism is a greater source of legitimacy, and paranoia about the outside world’s intentions gathers steam, the temptation to keep the world off kilter and guessing grows.”

The fact that with a probability approaching 100% India will face armed conflict with China over the next many years, has major implications says Mr Bhanu Mehta: “Dealing with China will require far-reaching political, military and economic changes, and a move away from the current incremental status quo. If we are in the long haul with no prospect for reciprocity from China, then our trade and development choices have to reflect reality. The ground will have to be prepared.”

Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Marcellus Investment Managers is also regulated in the United States as an Investment Advisor.

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