An introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….
“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.”
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Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Marcellus Investment Managers is also regulated in the United States as an Investment Advisor.
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