After last weekend’s dramatic capture of the Venezuelan President and his first lady by American troops, popular explanation was that much like in Iraq, America is interested in Venezuela’s vast oil resources (the largest in the world). Indeed, Trump said as much in his presser. Here’s another perspective though, somewhat far more fascinating and entertaining that it seems to come straight out of a Tom Clancy novel.
First, the author suggests that Trump had little to do with it: “…it is essential to understand who actually makes decisions of this magnitude. In the American national security apparatus, the Pentagon does not await presidential direction on major military operations. The Pentagon assesses threats, evaluates strategic priorities, and determines when military action crosses from option to necessity. The president then executes what the military establishment has already decided is required.
….Trump’s public statements about oil and his claim that Venezuela’s resources will benefit the United States represent the political narrative constructed to sell the operation domestically. The Pentagon’s determination that adversary presence and critical mineral vulnerabilities required kinetic action represents the actual decision calculus.”
So, if the narcotics and the oil were for political narratives what was the Pentagon’s real motive in Venezuela: “….the convergence of three existential threats from America’s three primary adversaries. China has embedded operational control into critical mineral extraction that feeds weapons manufacturing. Iran has established drone production facilities within strike range of the continental United States. Russia has deployed military advisers and integrated air defense systems in the Caribbean. Venezuela represents the only location where all three adversaries operate simultaneously. The oil is secondary. Breaking Chinese supply chain dominance, eliminating Iranian manufacturing capability, and expelling Russian military presence are primary.”
The author then goes on to elaborate on each of these. First, the Chinese supply chain:
“China’s 2025 export restrictions on rare earths, imposed as retaliation for US tariffs, intensified global competition for alternative sources and demonstrated Beijing’s willingness to weaponize critical mineral supply chains when convenient. Western nations seeking to diversify away from Chinese processing looked to Venezuela, only to discover Chinese buyers already controlled extraction operations. This is strategic encirclement where China dominates both global processing infrastructure and alternative source extraction. Venezuela represents one of the few significant sources of coltan, rare earths, and related minerals outside direct Chinese territorial control, but Chinese operational presence at the mining sites makes these resources effectively Chinese-controlled despite Western Hemisphere location.”
Then the Iranian angle: “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains an “anchor presence” in Venezuela, with Hezbollah operating alongside….Documented Iranian weapons transfers to Venezuela since 2020 include Mohajer-6 unmanned aerial vehicles with 2,000 kilometer operational range, sufficient to reach any target in Florida. Venezuela has publicly displayed these systems in military parades from 2021 through 2023….More concerning than individual weapons transfers is Iran’s decision to outsource drone production to Venezuela. Manufacturing facilities now exist on Venezuelan territory capable of producing offensive drones domestically. This represents permanent Iranian military-industrial presence in the Western Hemisphere.
Hezbollah networks in Venezuela extend beyond weapons to include fundraising, logistics, and operational planning infrastructure….these networks provide Iran with persistent intelligence, financial, and operational capabilities in the Americas that survive regime changes.”
Finally, Russian military advisory: “Over 120 Russian troops operate in Venezuela under Lieutenant General Oleg Makarevich…His deployment to Venezuela leading a rotational advisory mission indicates Moscow’s assessment of strategic importance.
Russian advisers provide training across multiple domains including infantry, drone operations, special forces, military intelligence, signals intelligence, armor, aircraft, artillery, and domestic surveillance. They are positioned in Caracas, Maracaibo, La Guaira, and Aves Island. This is comprehensive military-to-military integration, not limited technical assistance….Russia is establishing military infrastructure, training networks, and operational familiarity in America’s strategic backyard exactly as the United States has done in Russia’s near abroad.”
We recommend reading the whole piece or wait for what looks like an inevitable Netflix series on the subject.
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