We have never seen anything like Operation ‘Absolute Resolve’, the US Marines’ daring grab of Nicolas Maduro on 3rd January without a single casualty on the American side. As we seek to understand the daring operation better, in last week’s edition of Three Longs & Shorts, we highlighted Tracy Schuchart’s piece (see https://renegaderesources.pro/p/the-venezuelan-oil-narative-is-pure ) highlighting that the seizure of the Venezuelan President by the US armed forces was more a Pentagon/CIA operation rather than being an operation carefully planned by Donald Trump.
This week we focus on a BBC article which highlights three different facets of what made this a uniquely effective operation.
Firstly, the BBC reckons that the CIA had worked assiduously over many months to have collaborators deep within the Venezuelan elite who helped them execute the operation such a handful of US Marines were able to kill close to 100 Venezuelan guards and soldiers without a single casualty on the American side:
“The mission took months of planning and intelligence gathering. In August the CIA is believed to have sent a team of undercover officers into Venezuela.
The US does not have a functioning embassy in the country, so the team could not use diplomatic cover and were working in what is known in the intelligence worlds as a “denied area”. They were on the ground to scout targets and recruit people who could help.
US officials have said they had one particular source who was able to provide detailed intelligence on Maduro’s whereabouts which would have been critical to the operation.
Identities of such sources are normally highly protected but it quickly emerged it was a “government” source who must have been particularly close to Maduro and in his inner circle in order to know where he was going to be, and when…”
Secondly, the Americans seem to have used advanced electronic warfare to pull off this daring raid:
“There are still some mysteries though. One is exactly how the US turned off the lights in Caracas in order to enable the special forces to arrive.
“The lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have – it was dark and it was deadly,” US President Donald Trump said.
The fact that the US Cyber Command was publicly thanked for its role in the operation has led to speculation that US military hackers got inside Venezuelan networks in advance to shut the grid down at the right moment – but details are limited.
The failure of Chinese and Russian air defences has also led to speculation of what kind of jamming or electronic warfare technology was deployed by the US in the air to aid the operation. The US Space Command, which operates satellites, also received credit for creating a “pathway” for the special forces to enter unseen.
Stealth drones were also thought to have been deployed. Exact details of the capabilities used are likely to remain secret, but America’s adversaries will be doing their best to try and understand what happened.”
Thirdly, before extracting Maduro, the Americans seem to have worked with the Venezuelan elite to figure out what would happen after Maduro was taken out of the picture. The BBC writes:
“The CIA undertook a classified assessment in advance of the operation, looking at what might happen if Maduro was removed.
The analysts examined a series of options and, according to reports, came to the view that working with elements of the existing regime offered more chance for stability than trying to install the opposition in exile in power. That helped solidify the view that the US should work with Delcy Rodríguez the vice-president.
There are thought to have been back-channel, secret contacts with elements of the Maduro regime in advance of the operation to discuss how people might position themselves given different potential outcomes.”
Meticulous planning using help from insiders, electronic warfare and political subversion might become hallmarks of the countries which aspire to be superpowers in the 21st century. As a glimpse of how the conflicts of the future will play out, Venezuela might be a useful template to consider than Russia vs Ukraine or Operation Sindoor.
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