Last week we went to Silicon Valley to meet VCs and family offices which specialize in tech centric investments. Whilst we were learning about the latest developments in technology from these investor, this year’s Nobel Prizes for both Physics and Chemistry went to AI-centric thinkers. Not surprisingly therefore we learnt in the Valley about new operational models which are likely to transform how IT Services company, tech product vendors and their companies interact with each other. This thought-provoking blog from Dan Nguyen-Huu at Decibel, an VC, will give you a flavour of how the world is likely to change. If you work in IT Services or in the tech sector, we would suggest that you read the blog in full. Here is our synopsis of what Dan is saying.

Long ago i.e. in the 1990s we saw what is now called “On-Premise” model where “As software was installed on-premise at the customer site, software was sold in the form of ELAs (Enterprise License Agreements) with an attached support contract. The ELA was essentially a large dollar amount that allowed customers to use the software into perpetuity while the maintenance/support contract was annually recurring in nature. Traditionally, the breakdown between the perpetual license and support was a 90% / 10% split. For example, a VMware vSphere license, illustratively, would be $900K with a $100K support contract, for a total contract size (TCV) of $1M. The customer could use that version of the VMware license forever, but of course, every 2-3 years there would be a refresh cycle which would allow VMware to charge for their latest version. Since a service would be associated with maintenance, only 10% of the ELA would be annually recurring.”

Then at the turn of the century we entered what is now called the “Cloud/SaaS” model: “In the era of cloud, we were able to deliver software directly to the customer without coming on site for installation. Since everything ran and still runs through the cloud, the way we charge for software also changed to a fully recurring model. No longer did we split up the perpetual license against an ongoing support license. Support and license became one, charged annually, and thus SaaS was born. Many new SaaS companies emerged as incumbents struggled to keep up, often due to the challenges of replatforming to the cloud and their entrenched ways of selling software.”

Now, says Dan, we are entering a new era in which thanks to AI the conventional Cloud/SaaS likely to be disrupted: “With every new technology development comes a new business model disruption. With AI at our fingertips, a new path has been forged for startups to consider when building the next generation of companies, which I call Managed Services as Software.”

Here is our simplified version of what Dan is saying (as mentioned above, the pros should read Dan’s excellent blog in full). Let’s take the example of a basic back-office service like the call-centre. A call centre provider will no longer pitch to, say, Wells Fargo that “We will shift your call centre to India and cut your cost by 50%”. Instead the new pitch will be “we have AI powered software where for every 1 call centre agent, you will be able to get the work done that is equivalent to 50 human beings sitting in a call centre (regardless of whether the human being is sitting in Gurgaon or Detroit).” The same applies of loan underwriting or sellside brokerage or software testing. Basically, 1 smart human being with an AI co-pilot can do the work of 50 human beings.

This operational model has several implications:

  • The definition of what is a tech product vs what is an IT Service is now getting blurred (as explained in the above example where the call centre services becomes an AI powered bot along with a handful of people).
  • The need for human labour falls dramatically. India’s competitive advantage in providing KPO services and cheap coding erodes significantly.
  • Even systems integrators (SIs) like Accenture are at risk because the new type of call centre software (which is integrated with AI) might not be amenable to implementation by Accenture if core skill involved lies in constantly upgrading the learning ability of that software. The current SIs like Accenture and TCS face the “innovator’s dilemma” and are at risk of disruption by a new generation of Sis expert at using Ais to retool current business processes.
  • The new generation SIs are likely to be able to take the call centre type service, put AI into it, get rid of the labour requirement by 90%, design a special AI chip for this, sell that chip (plus the AI enabled “call centre as a service”) to, say, HDFC Bank (or Wells Fargo), improve HDFC Bk’s op margin by hundreds of basic points and take for themselves a portion of that margin uplift.
We would love to hear from our readers about their thoughts on this evolving subject.

If you want to read our other published material, please visit https://marcellus.in/blog/

Note: The above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. The information provided is intended for educational purposes only. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is also an FME (Non-Retail) with the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Additionally, Marcellus is also registered with US Securities and Exchange Commission (“US SEC”) as an Investment Advisor.



2024 © | All rights reserved.

Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions