Gaming or Gambling? Young Indians are getting addicted to ‘opinion trading’, and losing huge sums

“Opinion trading apps such as Probo, MPL Opinio, Big Cash, and Playerzpot, among others, allow users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from cricket matches and stock movements to political results and cryptocurrency prices. Unlike the traditional financial markets, these platforms use a binary prediction model, where users wager money on ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcomes, making them more akin to gambling than skill-based investing.

The apps have grown exponentially in recent years, engaging over 50 million Indian users and registering over ₹50,000 crore in transaction volumes annually, with revenues projected to touch around ₹1,000 crore for 2024-25, according to consumer watchdogs and trader lobby the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).

Opinion trading apps have experienced significant growth in India, owing to their aggressive marketing strategies and seamless integration with digital payment systems. A quick search on YouTube mentioning any of these apps yields hundreds of results, with popular YouTubers such as Elvish Yadav promoting these platforms. A ‘Probo Predictions’ group on Telegram has over 53,000 subscribers.

…“Will India’s stock market close higher today?” “Will Virat Kohli score more than 50 runs in the next match?” “Will PM Modi be re-elected?

These are the kinds of binary prediction-based questions that users engage with on opinion trading apps. The process begins with users selecting a question and placing a bet on a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ option, with odds fluctuating based on demand.

As more users place bets, the payout for each option shifts dynamically, creating a sense of market movement. Unlike traditional gambling, these platforms often allow users to exit before the final result, enabling them to “trade” their positions and either lock in profits or cut losses, much like financial markets.

Once the real-world event ends, the winners are determined and payouts are distributed accordingly, while those who made incorrect predictions lose their staked amount.

India’s legal framework for betting and gambling distinguishes between games of skill, which are permitted, and games of chance, which are prohibited.

For context, fantasy sports apps like Dream11, which require users to build virtual teams based on real-life players and earn points based on their actual performance in a match, fall under the category of skill-based games.

Opinion trading platforms also position themselves as skill-based games, trading platforms or investment opportunities, a claim that is now being questioned by consumer advocacy groups.

A spokesperson for MPL, one of India’s largest mobile gaming companies with over 50 games, clarified that every one of its games, including MPL Opinio, goes through rigorous evaluation to meet the industry’s skill-based standards.

“Independent experts, law firms and former judges have confirmed that, like fantasy cricket, opinion trading relies on key skills such as strategic decision-making, in-depth analysis and effective risk management,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response.”

The article shows screenshots from one such app which go as follows: