Two weeks ago we published our review of Dr Jonathan Knee’s excellent book, “The Platform Delusion” in which explains meticulously – using extensive research and detailed evidence – that the notion of “network effects” has been overhyped – see https://marcellus.in/story/
As if on cue, news has now emerged that the number of customers using Facebook is now shrinking. This is true globally as well as in India: “Facebook’s total number of users has declined — a first for the social media platform that has experienced seemingly never-ending growth since it debuted 17 years ago.
Facebook lost about half a million global daily users in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter, according to the quarterly earnings report of Meta, its parent company. That might not seem like a major drop relative to its under 1.93 billion total daily active users, but it represents a low point for a metrics-driven company whose user base long grew at a rapid pace across its different apps. The statistic shows how Meta has struggled to stay relevant to younger users, many of whom are drawn to competing apps like TikTok….
It’s long been known that user growth on the Facebook app was stagnating, in part because of its aging user base and the fact that it has run out of new countries to expand into. In its early days, Facebook was only available in the US, but has since expanded to almost every other country except for places like China, where the app is blocked.”
So what will happen next? The company has obviously spoken extensively about it heavy investments in the Metaverse. But here is a more prosaic next step: since the company can’t operate in China, India with 350 mn users is it largest client base. The billion odd Indians who don’t use Facebook can now expect to be pursued frenetically.
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