Over the past month as India has tried to build a future without America as a geo-political ally, India’s flirtation with China has led to a slew of editorials around the world about whether the Dragon and the Elephant are now going to kiss & make-up. Amongst these articles, James Crabtree’s piece stands out for its hardnosed view regarding the options facing India.
After criticizing Trump for throwing India under the bus, Mr. Crabtree says that India miscalculated in believing that it had a good relationship with the mercurial US President. But, says Mr. Crabtree, India would be making a mistake in turning to Russia and China in this uncertain hour. Quoting from his piece in Foreign Policy:
“Despite these immediate pressures, a major shift toward China and Russia would prove a serious mistake. New Delhi’s recent foreign-policy approach was built on sound insights about the country’s development requirements. To sustain rapid growth, India needs foreign investment, which is most likely to come from richer and more technologically advanced nations. It also needs technology transfers for industrial and digital transformation, which neither China nor Russia will likely be willing to provide. Most importantly, how to manage an assertive China remains India’s long-term challenge. None of these underlying realities have changed, simply because of Trump’s diplomatic intransigence.
As India contemplates its options, therefore, three points should be kept in mind.
First, the current challenge with the United States may not last. Given Trump’s transactional approach and frequent changes of mind, a face-saving agreement that allows both sides to step back from confrontation remains possible. If a deal is reached to paper over recent divisions, Trump could still visit New Delhi this fall to attend a planned Quad summit.
Second, Russia and China cannot provide what India needs most for long-term development and security. India has been gradually but systematically diversifying away from Russian weapons, as it seeks more modern and reliable suppliers. Moscow is useful for cheap energy but offers little in terms of advanced technology and investment. China, meanwhile, is viewed with deep suspicion by Indian security establishments, who rightly consider it the primary long-term threat to Indian interests. To manage China, India needs friends elsewhere.
Third, India has options beyond simply choosing between the United States and China. It can further deepen security cooperation with Australia and Japan, while also strengthening ties with South Korea, another major arms producer. European nations are eager to expand ties, too, and along-awaited trade deal with the European Union appears within reach. India can continue building relationships with other advanced middle powers, including Israel and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East, as well as Singapore and Malaysia in Southeast Asia.”
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