We finally had the 2hour marathon barrier broken earlier this April, not once but twice in the same race. Kenya’s Sebastian Sawe and Ethiopian Yomif Kejelcha both finished the London Marathon in under two hours. The previous record stood for less than three years. But the more famously stubborn barrier in running history has been the 4 minute mile. It took 9 years before Roger Bannister famously broke the previous record to become the first human to run a mile in less than four minutes.
That it took so long to break it coupled with the fact that soon after Bannister, quite a few others achieved the feat, prompting many to believe that it was indeed a psychological barrier and Bannister’s run in 1954 was a breakthrough of sorts. This article shows why that belief is not grounded in reality.
“The progression of the World Records during the 1940’s and 50’s is a unique mix of history getting in the way of athletics natural progression. In the early 1940’s Arne Anderson and Gunder Hagg traded the mile world record getting it down to 4:01.4 in 1945. And there it stayed until Bannister broke it 9 years later. Why the stagnation?
The obvious answer is, it was 1945 and we had just completed that little thing called World War 2. You see, during the war years, the Swedes (Anderson and Hagg) had the freedom to continue their athletic careers, chasing records, while the rest of the world, for the most part, was put on hold. Not only that, but we lost scores of top talent to deaths and injuries during the war. For a popularized example, see Unbroken hero Louis Zamperini. So not only were we hurt athletically during the war, but also during the post war era.
Additionally, while Hagg and Anderson were taking their shots, in 1946, they were banned from competing as they were labeled professionals for taking money, which was against the amateur rules of the day. At the ripe age of 27, less than a year after he ran 4:01.4, Hagg’s career was finished.”
The author strengthens his argument by showing how similar patterns of stagnation and progression existed during that time in other mid and long distance races too and without any whole number mark to be a psychological barrier.
“….After stagnating for 13 years, the 5k record improved an astonishing 20 seconds in the next two years! Look familiar? That’s about the rate of progression we saw in the mile world record during the same time frame.” He shows examples for 800m, 10k and the marathon as well.
And his most compelling argument is comparing the records for the closest race to the mile – the 1,500m (the Olympic standard) whose record was an odd 3min 43 seconds i.e, no such mental barrier and yet it followed the same pattern. See article for tables that show the remarkable pattern of stagnation and progression across races in that period. So, what’s the point of the author?
“While the psychology of the breakthrough after the first sub 4-minute mile makes for a wonderfully inspiring story, the reality is much different. It’s strange to say, but World War 2 might have created the 4 minute barrier. Not doctors saying we couldn’t do it, or people not believing. A massive war that put a halt to every record imaginable. It just so happened that we were just on the wrong side of 4 minutes when the stagnation occurred.”
If you want to read our other published material, please visit https://marcellus.in/blog/
Note: The above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. The information provided is intended for educational purposes only. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is also an FME (Non-Retail) with the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Additionally, Marcellus is also registered with US Securities and Exchange Commission (“US SEC”) as an Investment Advisor.