Some of us with kids going to college this year may have experienced this with our kids or their friends in the past few months as decisions from universities started pouring in. Whilst most got what they aspired for; there were disappointments even amongst the best students as they faced rejections from elite universities. Ted Lamade cites this example to drive home a crucial part about accepting the low odds of certain endeavours and still going after them wholeheartedly.
“I was reminded of this recently after speaking with a young man who is navigating the college admissions process. He had been accepted to several very good universities, but not his first choice, which happens to accept fewer than 6% of applicants.
In an attempt to alleviate some of his angst, I asked him a simple question:
“How many high schools do you think there are in the United States?”
He guessed 12,000.
The actual number is closer to 25,000.
I then asked him how many valedictorians there are in the U.S.
He understood the point. Roughly one valedictorian at each high school, so 25,000 in total.
Considering that the Ivy League enrolls approximately 15,000 freshmen each year, in theory, 40% of all valedictorians don’t have a spot. Once you account for international students, even fewer do.
Yet every year, students and parents across the country are devastated by rejection letters from elite universities.”
We notice these low odds of success across different walks of life – startups, athletes, artists, etc. He makes the point that most of us don’t get probabilities intuitively – that is our Achilles’ heel. And yet, that might be our biggest strength.
“After all, how else do you explain entrepreneurs starting companies in garages, explorers venturing into the unknown, or America’s Founding Fathers risking everything to declare independence from Great Britain?
Viewed purely through the lens of probability, many of humanity’s greatest achievements look irrational.
No rational calculation alone would have inspired those leaps.
Something else was required.
But what?
Passion.
And that leaves us with an interesting tension.
When should we trust the odds, and when should we challenge them?
When the pursuit matters as much as the outcome.
If you love learning, study hard. Chase your dream school. Take the APs and advanced classes. But if the acceptance letter never comes, your efforts will not have been in vain. The education you gain and continue building throughout your life will matter far more than the name at the top of your diploma.”
In conclusion, he says “Understanding probabilities is essential for maintaining perspective in a world filled with unrealistic expectations and carefully curated success stories.
But if you find something you truly love, don’t let the odds become your Achilles heel.
Instead, understand the probabilities, then decide whether the dream is worth pursuing anyway. And when others choose to chase theirs, root for them too.
After all, many of humanity’s greatest achievements began with someone willing to pursue a dream despite the odds.”
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Note: The above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. The information provided is intended for educational purposes only. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is also an FME (Non-Retail) with the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. Additionally, Marcellus is also registered with US Securities and Exchange Commission (“US SEC”) as an Investment Advisor.
