Long Read: Op Sindoor is the first battle in India’s two-front war. A vicious pawn in a King’s Gambit

From the day the tragic attacks in Pahalgam unfolded during the US Vice-President’s “personal visit” to India, many of us have been getting the feeling that we are but pawns in a real-world chess game with a Chinese grandmaster sitting opposite us and making calm, calculated moves. In a brilliant piece, Shekhar Gupta builds on this analogy and helps the reader understand India’s strategic options:

“Since the Pakistanis started this with Pahalgam and fought with Chinese equipment, technology and guidance, think of them as holding the white pieces. And since the side with the white pieces makes the opening move, see this as that familiar move called PK4 in the past, and e4 now.

This means moving the pawn in front of the king two squares ahead, inviting the rival to counter the move. This move can lead to several different strategies, some as exotic sounding as The Italian Game, Scotch Game and Ruy Lopez. The description I find more suitable is The King’s Gambit, since it’s more aggressive and can lead to multiple tactical options. The two of them, Pakistan and China, are playing this together. And they have moved a pawn forward. Pakistan is in the front, the pawn, powered by the king and the queen, their cavalry and counsels in the back, read China. They wait for India’s move now.

Complacency is no plan. The clock is running.”

Mr Gupta then highlights India’s central challenge in this high stakes game of chess – the Chinese are making us fight a two-front war:

“Our basic premise is that while we have fretted over our two-front predicament, we never really thought it would come to pass at the same time. In 1962, the Pakistanis stayed out, although not unconditionally. They demanded negotiations on Kashmir which duly began under US-British pressure. And in 1965 and 1971, Kargil and onwards, the Chinese mostly kept away. This first move of the pawn two squares ahead of the king shows this has now changed.

A two-front war is on. Except, the Chinese see no need to fight it directly. They have an able and willing proxy in Pakistan. They will keep selling it enough cutting-edge hardware to keep it on a par with India if not ahead in some specific areas, like possibly 5th-generation fighters within a year. Their satellites and other ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) resources will be at their ward’s disposal, and real-time advice on tap. That’s the reason I had said two weeks ago that the next provocation from Pakistan may not take the usual five-six years. It is likely to come earlier, before the field marshal begins to lose his political capital.”

Mr Gupta then explains how methodically China has worked to put India in a tricky position and how the Chinese will now try to neutralise India’s strengths:

“For decades, we have known that the Chinese use Pakistan as a cheap instrument to triangulate us between them. This strategy has now moved two steps ahead. The first was the Chinese moving up to eastern Ladakh and tying down a significant section of our strike forces usually earmarked for Pakistan. The second is the direct military challenge from Pakistan….

The four things they will worry about: India’s multi-layer air defence led by S-400, BrahMos missiles, especially when launched by Su-30MKIs from a distance way out of reach of any PAF missiles, the inadequacy of their own air defences including Chinese HQ-9s and India’s ability to suppress or destroy these using its anti-radiation drones.

Be sure the Chinese are working with the Pakistanis to address these. They have the S-400 too and boy, can they reverse-engineer. They will try to encash some IOUs with the Russians to find an answer to the BrahMos. A next generation fighter, the FC-31 with a longer-range missile will be on its way soon….

It’s safer to presume that China now sees Pakistan as an extension of their India-focused Western Theatre Command. I would go so far as to say that the Chinese PLA would see Pakistan as their newest, the sixth theatre command. If it keeps India bogged down, their own Western Theatre Command can chill…

China and Pakistan need each other more than they did in the 1960s. And if the Chinese can enable the Pakistanis to fight India as their proxies, it is value for money. We’ve only seen the first moves in this game yet.”

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