Strategy Series
Our articles specific to the six investment strategies we offer. Whether you invest with us or are looking to invest, these
articles can you give you an insight into why we make the decisions we make.
Wealth Compounding = High ROCEs + Reinvestment of Profits
Starting this month, we are rolling out a joint newsletter across our four domestic PMS Products. In this edition, we revisit the basic principles underlying Marcellus’ investment philosophy i.e. a firm’s ability to generate Free Cashflows (FCF) and grow them at a healthy rate sustainably over the long term. We take a look at: a) […]
Optical Illusions in Equity Investing
CCP valuation multiples correct 30% whilst fundamentals continue to compound at over 20% per annum
When ‘Loss Aversion’ Meets ‘Time Horizons’ in Equity Investing
Wealth Compounding = High ROCEs + Reinvestment of Profits
Starting this month, we are rolling out a joint newsletter across our four domestic PMS Products. In this edition, we revisit the basic principles underlying Marcellus’ investment philosophy i.e. a firm’s ability to generate Free Cashflows (FCF) and grow them at a healthy rate sustainably over the long term. We take a look at: a) […]
May 09 . 10 MIN READ
Optical Illusions in Equity Investing
Psychological biases tend to affect an investor’s decision making in subtle ways which are usually detrimental to long term investment returns. Several of these biases are better described as optical Illusions. Using the construct of the human brain as described by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman in his book ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, we highlight a […]
Apr 07 . 12 MIN READ
CCP valuation multiples correct 30% whilst fundamentals continue to compound at over 20% per annum
CCP portfolio companies’ valuations have become 30-35% cheaper over the last 12 months. Given that Free Cashflows of these companies have compounded at 5-7% higher run-rate compared to their earnings consistently over the last 5-10 years, their current valuations (on a Price to Free Cashflow basis) are significantly cheaper than where they were 3 or […]
Mar 06 . 7 MIN READ
When ‘Loss Aversion’ Meets ‘Time Horizons’ in Equity Investing
Investors’ decision making is often underpinned by a key psychological trait – loss aversion. As explained by Noble laureate Daniel Kahneman, the result of ‘loss aversion’ is that our pain from losses is more than twice the joy from equal amounts of gain. Juxtaposing this idea to the CCP investing approach discussed in our book […]
Feb 06 . 8 MIN READ
Making Money from Luxury Goods Manufacturers
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies which are listed in developed countries. The nature of the products and services – which cater to global economic megatrends – and the moats developed around process capacity, R&D, and capital allocation, are the key factors that contribute to the consistency of free […]
The ‘Pick & Shovel’ Strategy
Global Compounders: Investing in the Most Powerful Global Franchises
Making Money from Luxury Goods Manufacturers
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies which are listed in developed countries. The nature of the products and services – which cater to global economic megatrends – and the moats developed around process capacity, R&D, and capital allocation, are the key factors that contribute to the consistency of free […]
May 28 . 12 MIN READ
The ‘Pick & Shovel’ Strategy
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies listed in North America and Developed Europe. We employ a bottom-up company selection methodology that includes conducting primary research on moats, capital allocation, longer-term opportunities, and risks in order to comprehend the growth of cash flows over the long term. The nature of […]
Apr 17 . 10 MIN READ
Global Compounders: Investing in the Most Powerful Global Franchises
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies (listed on developed countries’ stock markets) based on rigorous bottom-up research around moats, capital allocation and sustainability of cash generation into the long term future. Consistency of free cashflow compounding of GCP companies is an outcome of: (a) the nature of products and […]
Feb 25 . 10 MIN READ
A Simple Approach to Valuing Financial Services Companies
Valuing lenders and insurance companies is tricky as the well accepted principle of discounting future cash flows does not work for Financial Services companies. These companies work under a regulatory framework which requires them to maintain a minimum capitalization level and also reinvest a large part of their earnings. Technically these firms have no/negative free […]
What KCP Lenders Can Teach SVB’s Management
Indian Lending: Gamblers versus Franchise Builders
Boring Companies Compound Profits At 20% p.a.
A Simple Approach to Valuing Financial Services Companies
Valuing lenders and insurance companies is tricky as the well accepted principle of discounting future cash flows does not work for Financial Services companies. These companies work under a regulatory framework which requires them to maintain a minimum capitalization level and also reinvest a large part of their earnings. Technically these firms have no/negative free […]
Apr 29 . 10 MIN READ
What KCP Lenders Can Teach SVB’s Management
Even as the global financial system is reeling from the stress created by the sharp increase in interest rates over the past year, the Indian banking system is well placed to overcome this crisis owing to its granular liability franchisee, well matched asset-liability (ALM) schedules and more calibrated monetary policy conduct by the central bank. […]
Mar 27 . 10 MIN READ
Indian Lending: Gamblers versus Franchise Builders
The Return on Equity (RoE) of lenders is driven by: (i) strong operating profitability (Return on Assets); or (ii) capital structure (high debt to equity). Recent euphoria in share prices notwithstanding, most PSU banks suffer from weak operational profitability (RoAs of 1% or lower) and high debt to equity ratios (15x+). This deadly combination is […]
Feb 26 . 7 MIN READ
Boring Companies Compound Profits At 20% p.a.
Investors who’ve studied Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch know that so-called “boring” stocks can turn out to be great investments in the long run. In India, a few lenders have been able to perform consistently across cycles. However, this also makes them prey to cycles where share prices don’t tend to follow fundamentals as investors […]
Jan 23 . 8 MIN READ
Rapidly Rising Profits Alongside Falling Share Prices
Over the last decade, while the BSE Small Cap index constituents have grown operating profits in low teens, the Little Champs constituents have consistently delivered 20%+ EBITDA growth. This has resulted in superior, consistent long term returns alongside sharper recoveries post drawdowns than the BSE SmallCap index. In recent quarters, while the fundamentals for Little […]
Little Champs: Spotlighting Vijaya Diagnostic
Powering Through the Slowdown
The Little Champs Are Prepared for Western Turmoil
Rapidly Rising Profits Alongside Falling Share Prices
Over the last decade, while the BSE Small Cap index constituents have grown operating profits in low teens, the Little Champs constituents have consistently delivered 20%+ EBITDA growth. This has resulted in superior, consistent long term returns alongside sharper recoveries post drawdowns than the BSE SmallCap index. In recent quarters, while the fundamentals for Little […]
Mar 21 . 8 MIN READ
Little Champs: Spotlighting Vijaya Diagnostic
This month we place the spotlight on Vijaya Diagnostic Centre Limited (Vijaya), a leading diagnostic player in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and one of the few organised players to offer an integrated offering of pathology (2/3rd revenue contribution) and radiology (1/3rd share of revenues). Vijaya has consistently outperformed its integrated diagnostic peers (FY18-22 average EBITDA margin nearly […]
Jan 31 . 10 MIN READ
Powering Through the Slowdown
In 2QFY23, Little Champs Portfolio (LCP) witnessed median revenue growth of 24% and PBT growth of 14%. However, some portfolio companies did face headwinds around revenues (Covid-19 related revenues tapering off, impact from price hikes) and margins (raw material and energy costs up). However, these headwinds have been abating in recent months which should aid […]
Nov 29 . 12 MIN READ
The Little Champs Are Prepared for Western Turmoil
Globalisation has been an important growth driver for Little Champs. However, several headwinds (geopolitical issues, rising energy costs and rising interest rates) in some export markets like Europe have raised concerns around Little Champs with significant global exposure. The fact that historically the impact of crises in the West has had limited impact on Indian […]
Oct 31 . 5 MIN READ
MeritorQ Advisory : The Moneyball of Quality Investing
Just as the Moneyball approach in baseball (as explained by Michael Lewis in his book by the same name) helped a team of seemingly average players consistently win matches, in Marcellus’ MeritorQ, we select good quality and undervalued companies (rather than betting on singular ‘quality’ or ‘value’ investment opportunities) to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. The […]
MeritorQ Advisory: A Deeper Dive into MeritorQ’s Forensic Model
MeritorQ Advisory : The Power of Checklists
MeritorQ Advisory:Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns
MeritorQ Advisory : The Moneyball of Quality Investing
Just as the Moneyball approach in baseball (as explained by Michael Lewis in his book by the same name) helped a team of seemingly average players consistently win matches, in Marcellus’ MeritorQ, we select good quality and undervalued companies (rather than betting on singular ‘quality’ or ‘value’ investment opportunities) to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. The […]
Mar 31 . 7 MIN READ
MeritorQ Advisory: A Deeper Dive into MeritorQ’s Forensic Model
MeritorQ uses forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting quality of Indian companies. As we highlighted in our February newsletter – Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns – our accounting checks can identify accounting frauds well in advance of the actual drawdown event. Using the specific examples of two companies in this newsletter, we discuss how accounting […]
Mar 31 . 9 MIN READ
MeritorQ Advisory : The Power of Checklists
Most of us have used a checklist at some point. Humans need checklists because most of us have imperfect recall. Checklists provide a cognitive safety net. They prevent us from having to suffer due to our flaws —flaws of memory, attention, and thoroughness. Checklists have been found to be effective in performing complex tasks in varied […]
Mar 31 . 10 MIN READ
MeritorQ Advisory:Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns
Over the past 16 years, the average return of market cap weighted BSE 500 index has been 10.3% p.a. on a 3-year rolling basis. But the story changes completely when we differentiate between the index constituents based on their accounting quality. There is a clear deterioration in returns and a rapid increase in risk and […]
Mar 31 . 11 MIN READ
MeritorQ: A Deeper Dive into MeritorQ’s Forensic Model
MeritorQ uses forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting quality of Indian companies. As we highlighted in our February newsletter – Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns – our accounting checks can identify accounting frauds well in advance of the actual drawdown event. Using the specific examples of two companies in this newsletter, we discuss how accounting […]
MeritorQ: Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns
MeritorQ: The Power of Checklists
MeritorQ: Strength Lies in Numbers
MeritorQ: A Deeper Dive into MeritorQ’s Forensic Model
MeritorQ uses forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting quality of Indian companies. As we highlighted in our February newsletter – Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns – our accounting checks can identify accounting frauds well in advance of the actual drawdown event. Using the specific examples of two companies in this newsletter, we discuss how accounting […]
Mar 15 . 9 MIN READ
MeritorQ: Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns
Over the past 16 years, the average return of market cap weighted BSE 500 index has been 10.3% p.a. on a 3-year rolling basis. But the story changes completely when we differentiate between the index constituents based on their accounting quality. There is a clear deterioration in returns and a rapid increase in risk and […]
Feb 13 . 11 MIN READ
MeritorQ: The Power of Checklists
Most of us have used a checklist at some point. Humans need checklists because most of us have imperfect recall. Checklists provide a cognitive safety net. They prevent us from having to suffer due to our flaws —flaws of memory, attention, and thoroughness. Checklists have been found to be effective in performing complex tasks in varied […]
Jan 11 . 10 MIN READ
MeritorQ: Strength Lies in Numbers
The operational efficiency of the quantitative approach we take in MeritorQ allows us to analyze and rank stocks over a large investment universe on a consistent set of metrics. Ranking over a large peer group of companies magnifiesthe power of statistical analysis and hence the reliability of the screening and selection steps. Another benefit of […]
Dec 08 . 8 MIN READ
Outsized Earnings Growth Alongside Falling Share Prices
In this month’s newsletter, we ask whether the Rising Giants (RG) stocks were ‘richly’ valued when we bought them? Using an earnings growth of 20% (5% for the terminal year) and cost of capital of 12%, the median longevity implied by the then prevailing market prices for the RG portfolio rose from 8 years as at FY18-end […]
Short Term Excitement vs Long Term Wealth Creation
The Cheaper They Get, The More We Buy
R-R-R-Rising Giants
Outsized Earnings Growth Alongside Falling Share Prices
In this month’s newsletter, we ask whether the Rising Giants (RG) stocks were ‘richly’ valued when we bought them? Using an earnings growth of 20% (5% for the terminal year) and cost of capital of 12%, the median longevity implied by the then prevailing market prices for the RG portfolio rose from 8 years as at FY18-end […]
Apr 24 . 8 MIN READ
Short Term Excitement vs Long Term Wealth Creation
Every year there will be a couple of sectors and a handful of stocks that give outsized returns helped by short term earnings momentum and narratives around the same. However, such sectors and stocks are generally unable to replicate their short-term success over the medium to long-term. While chasing momentum can provide short term enrichment, […]
Feb 20 . 6 MIN READ
The Cheaper They Get, The More We Buy
The long-term valuation of a company is determined by the growth and longevity of its free cash flows (FCF). Its share price, on the other hand, is heavily influenced by near term earnings/events. This creates a disconnect between the intrinsic value of the company and its share price. This disconnect has been stark for the […]
Jan 18 . 9 MIN READ
R-R-R-Rising Giants
For the four quarters ending 2QFY23, the Rising Giants portfolio witnessed median revenue growth of 23% and EBITDA growth of 14%. Some portfolio companies faced headwinds around Covid-19 related revenues tapering off and higher input prices. However, as is the norm in stockmarkets, the -16.44% price correction in the portfolio (since inception) is extrapolating these […]
Dec 19 . 9 MIN READ
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