Modern Utilities Operating on a Global Scale Make for Lucrative Investments.
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) focuses on investing in 25-30 highly fortified global companies listed mostly in developed markets. These companies align with global megatrends and possess robust moats built around process capability, research and development, and capital allocation. These factors play a pivotal role in driving the consistent compounding for GCP companies. Over time, […]
MeritorQ: The Value of Free Cash Flows
In MeritorQ value is measured by comparing the free cash flow generation ability of a company versus its share price, a valuation measure known as P/FCF. We show that in India P/FCF is superior to other commonly used relative valuation measures like P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B. In fact, a free cash flow-based measure of relative value […]
The Consumerization of Credit in India
In the last couple of years, India’s financial services sector has crossed a significant milestone – for the first time the size of retail credit (i.e. credit extended to consumers) is now larger than corporate credit. In this newsletter, we discuss reasons behind the success of high-quality lenders (like HDFC Bank, Chola Investment & Finance […]
Making Money from Luxury Goods Manufacturers
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies which are listed in developed countries. The nature of the products and services – which cater to global economic megatrends – and the moats developed around process capacity, R&D, and capital allocation, are the key factors that contribute to the consistency of free […]
Wealth Compounding = High ROCEs + Reinvestment of Profits
Starting this month, we are rolling out a joint newsletter across our four domestic PMS Products. In this edition, we revisit the basic principles underlying Marcellus’ investment philosophy i.e. a firm’s ability to generate Free Cashflows (FCF) and grow them at a healthy rate sustainably over the long term. We take a look at: a) […]
A Simple Approach to Valuing Financial Services Companies
Valuing lenders and insurance companies is tricky as the well accepted principle of discounting future cash flows does not work for Financial Services companies. These companies work under a regulatory framework which requires them to maintain a minimum capitalization level and also reinvest a large part of their earnings. Technically these firms have no/negative free […]
Outsized Earnings Growth Alongside Falling Share Prices
In this month’s newsletter, we ask whether the Rising Giants (RG) stocks were ‘richly’ valued when we bought them? Using an earnings growth of 20% (5% for the terminal year) and cost of capital of 12%, the median longevity implied by the then prevailing market prices for the RG portfolio rose from 8 years as at FY18-end […]
The ‘Pick & Shovel’ Strategy
Marcellus’ Global Compounders Portfolio (GCP) invests in 25-30 deeply moated global companies listed in North America and Developed Europe. We employ a bottom-up company selection methodology that includes conducting primary research on moats, capital allocation, longer-term opportunities, and risks in order to comprehend the growth of cash flows over the long term. The nature of […]
Optical Illusions in Equity Investing
Psychological biases tend to affect an investor’s decision making in subtle ways which are usually detrimental to long term investment returns. Several of these biases are better described as optical Illusions. Using the construct of the human brain as described by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman in his book ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, we highlight a […]
MeritorQ Advisory : The Moneyball of Quality Investing
Just as the Moneyball approach in baseball (as explained by Michael Lewis in his book by the same name) helped a team of seemingly average players consistently win matches, in Marcellus’ MeritorQ, we select good quality and undervalued companies (rather than betting on singular ‘quality’ or ‘value’ investment opportunities) to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. The […]
MeritorQ Advisory: A Deeper In-Depth Look At MeritorQ’s Forensic Model
MeritorQ uses forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting quality of Indian companies. As we highlighted in our February newsletter – Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns – our accounting checks can identify accounting frauds well in advance of the actual drawdown event. Using the specific examples of two companies in this newsletter, we discuss how accounting […]
MeritorQ Advisory:Forensic Accounting Using Quant Methods Boosts Returns
Over the past 16 years, the average return of market cap weighted BSE 500 index has been 10.3% p.a. on a 3-year rolling basis. But the story changes completely when we differentiate between the index constituents based on their accounting quality. There is a clear deterioration in returns and a rapid increase in risk and […]
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