The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that all stocks always reflect all available information in their prices, making it impossible to find or buy undervalued stocks. With stock selection being redundant, the one way to increase portfolio returns is to increase systemic risk – i.e. buying high beta stocks. Many distinguished investors, including Warren Buffett […]
US FDA’s record warning letters to Indian pharma majors in the recent years, Katherine Eban’s hard hitting book on Indian pharma (ignoring the controversial aspects) and our research on the sector raises concerns around the risk-adjusted rewards of investing in the standard Indian Big Pharma model. Moreover, in an industry where non-compliance costs years of […]
20 of today’s Nifty constituents are highly likely to be booted out over the next decade. We outline how you can identify the exits (relatively easy to do) and the entrants into the Nifty (a little harder to do) over the next decade. If you are good at spotting the 20 entrants into the Nifty […]
With the money market continuing to show reluctance in terms of financing NBFCs, the balance sheet of the sector continues to shrink with obvious adverse consequences for the Indian economy. We suggest three remedies which the authorities should consider implementing in order to prevent the NBFC sector from unravelling further. The slide continues In its […]
The former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, famously said, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” A robust military structure built on the foundations of unswerving training and a disciplined approach is one that is believed to win wars. This […]
At first glance, software development and investing seem to be poles apart. But we find a common and interesting thread in the process that investment managers and software developers follow. The first public release of the Android operating system (OS) for mobile phones was in 2008. The most recent version is its sixteenth, meaning an […]
As we complete a year of managing money in India, we celebrate two towering legends of the Indian music industry. Not only did RD Burman and AR Rahman change the way movie music is made in India, there are striking parallels in their careers. Both men were professional musicians by their mid-teens. Both turned away […]
The complete breakdown of the relationship between Nifty earnings and GDP growth raises major questions about India’s premier benchmark index. Whilst the underlying drivers of this relationship breakdown are non-trivial (and merit greater investigation), unless repaired this relationship breakdown could have major adverse consequences for the Indian economy. Our 15th Feb note… On 15th February 2019, […]
As study after study shows that over 80% of large cap Indian mutual funds underperform their benchmark, the intellectual legacy that John Bogle left behind becomes ever more relevant for Indian investors. Beyond the idea of index funds, Bogle identified several deeper truths about our profession – the importance of minimising costs, of being sceptical […]
Beyond the negative impact of our smartphones on our attention spans lie other harms. These negatives include anxiety, loneliness and a tendency to take extreme stances. Cal Newport says that by jettisoning all but the most essential digital tools for a month, not only can we learn “deep work”, we can also build more fulfilling […]
In the BSE100 universe we find no significant correlation between starting period valuations (i.e. at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at – phases of rapid P/E multiple expansion, significant P/E multiple compression, strong earnings growth, or weak earnings growth. Instead, […]
20 years ago twelve American academics published a collection of studies tracing the intellectual development of giants like Einstein, Darwin, Faraday, Lavoisier, Beethoven and Wordsworth. This intense study of creative people yields rich leanings. At the core of creativity is a heavy duty memory, a multiplicity of projects, stimulating company and a willingness to work […]
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