Fooled by probabilities and by Indian NBFCs
Published on:20 October, 2018 There are plenty of cleverly crafted games in which you win most of the time and are rewarded with small payoffs. However, in such games there is always one scenario (which is not the base case scenario) where you get...
Published on 20 Oct, 2018VIEW MORE
What do we expect from a CEO
Published on: 19 Oct, 2018 Rather than being a corporate Superwoman, the Effective CEO is an honest, industrious, well informed executive who is aware of her limitations and understands that her conduct and her incentive structure sets the tone for...
Published on 19 Oct, 2018VIEW MORE
Spotting the Liar in the Boardroom
Published on: 12 Oct, 2018 Alongside our forensic accounting model, we also use questioning techniques popularised by the CIA to figure out whether the CEOs we are meeting are making things up. “He that has eyes to see and ears to hear may...
Published on 12 Oct, 2018VIEW MORE
The Hero Delusion in Sport, Business & Elsewhere
Published on: 5 Oct, 2018 Evolution has trained us to use ‘thumb rules’ to simplify complex decisions. However, when these thumb rules don’t work, we are prone to delusional thinking. Our belief in heroes is one such delusion. Evolution has...
Published on 05 Oct, 2018VIEW MORE
Accounting fraud and liquidity crunches are bedfellows
Published on: 29 Sep, 2018 Major accounting frauds typically come to light when liquidity tightens. Given the over 2% point jump in money market rates in India in the last 12 months, the probability of major accounting fraud coming to light in the...
Published on 29 Sep, 2018VIEW MORE
Elections are irrelevant for equity investors
Published on: 20 Sep, 2018 Exhaustive research by American political scientists, Chris Achen & Larry Bartels, shows that elections neither produce responsive governments nor do voters elect leaders who can tangibly impact economic outcomes and...
Published on 20 Sep, 2018VIEW MORE
Reverse Positioned Brands
Published on: 10 Sep, 2018 “The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of ‘positive deviants’ in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as...
Published on 10 Sep, 2018VIEW MORE
Lehman, liquidity and Indias exposed financial system
On a crisp wintry morning in January 2007 I sat down with, John Kay, the Chairman of the firm I had co-founded in London, for our monthly chat. Over the next hour or so, John’s penetrating intellect helped me understand why the overleveraged...
Published on 28 Aug, 2018VIEW MORE
The smartest thinkers on competitive advantage
‘Competitive advantage’ is the most commonly used concept in business. However, proper application of the concept – to figure out whether an investment is worth making – is not easy. Three smart thinkers – Joan Magretta,...
Published on 20 Aug, 2018VIEW MORE
The rise of Indian SMEs
The networking of the Indian economy (through roads, phones, internet, low cost flights) has created immense churn in the stockmarket. Small companies who were formerly regional players are raising their sights and aiming to become national players....
Published on 13 Aug, 2018VIEW MORE